SPX Weekly Trend

This strategy is for account sizes above $10.000 and utilizes a historically and mathematically based method to maximize involvement in the SPX’s upward trend, while managing risks and leveraging the benefits of compounding.

Key facts

  • Minimum: $250 per trade
  • For accounts above $10.000
  • 1:1 risk to reward credit or debit spreads on SPX
  • Up to 5 trades per week
  • Win rate: >60% (since 2013)
  • Trade duration: 3-7 days
  • Adjustments: None
  • Day trading: No
  • IRA account: Yes
  • Via email or executed via Autotrading.


This trading strategy focuses on entering a credit or debit spread with a one-to-one risk-reward ratio on the first trading day of each week. We aim for the expiration date of the following Monday. The goal is to capitalize on the historical upwards trend of the SPX.

The trade is executed with no adjustments made post-entry based on mathematical principles, emphasizing an approach to imitate the historical upwards trend. The publicly available historical data from 2013 onwards shows the effectiveness of this strategy and a robust edge that leads to consistent profits over one year time. Leveraging an edge in trading is everything. 

To further increase our edge, we like to participate up to five times per week if there is an uptrend, and we use a weekly and monthly trade stop to limit our entries in downtrends or bearish markets. We show this in the results for 2022. Most of these strategies recorded big losses in 2022, but we came out breakeven for the year. 

The trade setup involves entering a $1-wide spread, aiming for as close to a one-to-one risk-reward as possible, and avoiding trades that significantly skew this balance. The strategy is scalable according to individual account sizes, with the potential for larger positions based on the trader’s capacity and risk tolerance. We recommend allocating no more than 1-5% per trade, depending on individual risk tolerance and account size. Compounding is highly recommended.

Frequently Asked Questions

The win rate is identical of SPX Weekly Trend and SPY Weekly Trend.

Please have a look at the historical track record of SPY Weekly Trend below.

  • 2023: 90W/47L / 65%Wins / 215% Return on Account / 624% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2022: 42W/41L / 51%Wins / 5% Return on Account / -5.24% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2021: 95W/50L / 65%Wins / 225% Return on Account / 692% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2020: 96W/59L / 61%Wins / 185% Return on Account / 424% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2019: 91W/64L / 58%Wins / 125% Return on Account / 188% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2018: 73W/54L / 57%Wins / 95% Return on Account/ 120% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2017: 94W/59L / 61%Wins / 165% Return on Account / 330% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2016: 76W/51L / 60%Wins / 125% Return on Account / 198% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2015: 75W/51L / 58%Wins / 120% Return on Account / 183% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2014: 84W/50L / 63%Wins / 170% Return on Account / 363% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.
  • 2013: 80W/54L / 60%Wins / 130% Return on Account / 210% ROA compounded / detailed results, click here.

SPX Weekly Trend is for accounts above $10.000. We recommend to risk between 1 and 5%.

If you like to compound, what we recommend, you should select % account value on your allocation page.

Yes, we highly recommend to scale in. If your desired risk is 5% per trade, then start the first week with 2.5% and increase only after your account grew by 20%. This will protect you to start with a losing streak. 

No. Unfortunately you would need a margin account to trade spreads.

No. SPX is cash-settled at expiration, therefore there is no assignment risk.

No. We do not adjust trades. The options will expire worthless.

Why the SP500 tends to go higher over time?

The S&P 500 index, which represents the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States, tends to go higher over time for several reasons. A main factor is the dynamic nature of its composition. Here is a more detailed explanation:

1. Economic Growth

Over long periods, the economy tends to grow, reflecting increases in productivity, population, and innovation. As the economy expands, corporate earnings generally increase, which can drive stock prices higher. Since the S&P 500 is a market-capitalization-weighted index, it benefits from this overall growth in the economy and corporate earnings.

2. Inflation

Over time, inflation leads to higher nominal prices for goods and services, which can translate into higher nominal sales and earnings for companies. This inflationary effect can contribute to the nominal increase in stock prices and, consequently, the S&P 500 index.

3. Reinvestment of Dividends

Many companies in the S&P 500 pay dividends to shareholders. When investors reinvest these dividends in buying more stocks, it can have a compounding effect, contributing to the long-term growth of the index.

4. Technological Advancements and Innovation

The S&P 500 includes companies at the forefront of innovation and technological advancements. These companies can grow at a faster rate than the overall economy, contributing significantly to the index’s performance. As older technologies and business models become obsolete, they are replaced by newer, more efficient ones, driving economic progress and stock performance.

5. Survivorship Bias and Adaptation

As mentioned earlier, the composition of the S&P 500 is not static. Companies that underperform or fall behind in market capitalization can be removed from the index, while those showing strong growth and market relevance are added. This process means the index tends to reflect the performance of the current leading companies in the economy. The continuous adaptation ensures the S&P 500 remains relevant and tends to grow over time, as it represents the more successful and adaptive segments of the economy.

6. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

Over long periods, investor optimism and the willingness to invest in equities can drive prices higher. While market sentiment can fluctuate dramatically in the short term, leading to volatility, the long-term trend has been upward due to the factors mentioned above, along with a consensus that investing in the stock market is a good long-term investment strategy.

Together, these factors contribute to the long-term upward trend of the S&P 500, despite periods of volatility and market corrections. It’s the combination of economic growth, innovation, and the dynamic, self-refreshing nature of the index itself that underpins its growth over time.

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